CLIMATE scientists say powerful tropical storm El Niño is on track to become “one of the most powerful on record” – also strongly suggesting that the West Coast could face heavy rainfall this winter.
“But El Niño still hasn’t sealed the deal, and there still needs to be a dramatic change in the winds in the Pacific Ocean if it is to be as strong as it might be,” said Bill Patzert, climatologist for NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge, California.
“It’s still very impressive, but it’s a marathon with an El Niño,” Patzert said. “At 20 miles, do you hit the wall? Or do you pick up the pace?”
At this point, El Niño is strong and could be even stronger than the 1997-98 storm, which brought heavy rains, deadly flooding and mudslides across California, giving the southern state double its rainfall and the mountains double the snowpack, the Los Angeles Times reported.
The latest National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center’s forecast, issued Thursday, Sept. 10, said that computer models unanimously favor a strong El Niño, and that there is a 95 percent chance that the storm will continue through the winter.
The rains prove beneficial for California, which is experiencing its fourth year of severe drought.
The Climate Prediction Center’s deputy director, Mike Halpert, said Thursday that sea-surface temperatures in a benchmark location of the Pacific Ocean are now exceeding 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit above the average. Those are the highest temperatures recorded “for the first time since the end of the 1997-98 El Niño.”
“The present El Niño is already one of the strongest on record and is expected to strengthen further through the late fall or early winter months,” said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with Stanford University. “At this juncture, the likeliest outcome for California is a wetter-than-average winter.”
According to Swain, California could receive stronger storms than typical, especially between December through March. With sea temperatures particularly warm offshore, that could bring even more atmospheric moisture to fuel storm systems bound for this state, he wrote on his blog.
“All of this suggests that there could be a substantially increased risk of precipitation-related hazards this winter in California, including flooding and landslides,” Swain said.
The harsh effects of the drought — deaths of trees, thick ash and debris left behind by wildfires — could also increase the risk of mudslides and debris flow this winter.
California has already been feeling the effects of El Niño, with an increased number of hurricanes in the eastern Pacific that have sent intense storms over the state this summer. El Niño is a factor in the rising humidity and scattered thunderstorms and flooding over the Southland this week.
“This El Niño is already happening and it’s already having impacts,” Patzert said, “as warm ocean water from the western Pacific Ocean surges to the Americas.”
“But for this coming El Niño to rival the infamous “Godzilla El Niño” of 1997-98, the east-to-west trade winds of the Pacific Ocean along the equator need to dramatically collapse, which would allow the sea near Peru to warm up even further. And that hasn’t happened yet,” Patzert added.
“At this point, there’s no guarantees.”
Weather experts are also warning that while more rainfall would certainly be welcome, there is virtually no hope that one rainy winter could reverse the severe effects of the four-year drought. It would take many years of above-average rain and snow to officially end the drought and refill empty, dried-up reservoirs and wells, experts say.
“Californians should continue to use water carefully and sparingly in the face of the ongoing extreme drought,” state climatologist Michael L. Anderson said in a statement. “Californians should not count on El Niño to end the drought.”