THE recent Social Weather Station (SWS) and Pulse Asia reports on the performance and trust ratings of President Noynoy Aquino have been grist for those who want to see him ride off into the sunset before his official tenure ends.
The SWS survey showed him with 47 percent satisfied, down 16 points from the December 2014 rating of 63 percent. He also rated 36 percent dissatisfied (an increase of 12 points) and 17 percent undecided (up three points).
Needless to say, these numbers have rattled Malacañang enough to cause presidential spokesman Sonny Coloma to lay the blame on media for his boss’ “decline.”
One national daily ran the ominous banner headline, “SWS: Aquino satisfaction rating hits all-time low.” In the same paper, another headline read: “Aquino ratings slump signals downfall – militant solons.”
An opposition congressman declared that for Aquino, it’s “all downhill from here and opens the possibility of key allies deserting him.” Another solon solemnly intoned: “Mr. President, read the writings on the wall. If you don’t resign, you risk entering the most turbulent period in your presidency.”
Is there, in fact reason, to panic? Not if we were to ask President Barack Obama.
But first, allow me to set my comments in perspective. Without going into details, I believe I helped PNoy win the presidency in a meaningful manner. But, like many enthusiastic supporters, I have been disappointed in his performance as President.
I have been quite critical of him since he began a selective application of his Tuwid na Daan policy, favoring friends and party mates and aggressively going after political enemies. When he kept an incomprehensible silence over the Napoles pork barrel scandal (until an impending “Million Man March” forced him to speak out), I began to question his judgment. And when he tried to defend the indefensible Disbursement Acceleration Fund (DAP) and Senator Jinggoy Estrada revealed that millions of DAP funds were used to seal the impeachment of Chief Justice Renato Corona, it became obvious to me that Aquino was just another transactional politician pretending to be a reformist.
But it should not be denied that his assumption of the presidency was like a transfusion of blood plasma into an ailing nation. It gave renewed hope to the citizenry. It motivated local entrepreneurs. It made the country more appealing to investors.
It also should not be denied that, compared to his predecessors, Aquino has kept his fingers relatively clean, although that bright side of his tenure has been dampened by persistent reports of monkey business and incompetence among members of his official family.
Of course, his very unpresidential and unmanly handling of the Mamasapano tragedy was the proverbial last straw. Our country simply cannot afford to have a President who can neither lead nor inspire and who can’t even tell a believable lie.
But have the Filipino people completely lost faith in PNoy? Are they ready to dump him and bid him good riddance without allowing him to finish his official tenure? And is the 47 percent satisfaction rating proof of that?
This is where I frankly think media and those who would like to see Aquino go have been acting like Chicken Little, declaring that the sky is about to fall. Well, the sky is not about to fall on . Aquino, if we go by parallel approval and disapproval ratings of Obama and other American presidents.
Has SWS told us grimly that Aquino’s net satisfaction rating is now a measly +11 percent, as a result of a dissatisfaction rating of 36 percent being deducted from his 47 percent satisfaction rating?
Well, then, where does that put Obama with his approval ratings of 46 percent, 44 percent and 47 percent, and disapproval ratings of 49 percent, 46 percent and 51 percent, according to surveys of Washington Post/ABC, CBS Network and CNN/ORC, respectively?
These are fairly recent figures. The Washington Post/ABC reading was conducted on March 26-29, 2015. CBS did its survey on February 13-17, 2015. And CNN/ORC did its reading on February 12-15, 2015.
If we go by the formula of SWS (satisfied less dissatisfied = net satisfaction), Obama would be in a very bad situation, indeed. That would mean -3 percent, -2 percent and -4 percent net satisfaction (or dissatisfaction), respectively, based on the three media surveys.
And yet, U.S. opinion leaders actually think that a 47 percent approval rating isn’t bad. Last year, in an article on Obama’s approval numbers, Ryan Gorman wrote:
“U.S. President Barack Obama’s approval rating has hit a 2014 high, but pales in comparison to Americans’ opinions of a former president during his second term.
“Just under 47 percent of Americans approve of the job President Obama is doing, according to a new Gallup poll. The bump comes amid a number of positive developments during his second term in office.”
The same article pointed out that Obama “rode into office in 2009 with a 67 percent approval rating, but a slowing economy, his handling of Iraq, Afghanistan and Guantanamo Bay, his handling of ISIS terrorists and other factors have led to a precipitous drop in positive sentiment. The president’s approval rating had dipped as low as 40 percent earlier as recently as six-weeks ago.”
Gallup tracks the presidential approval rating on a daily basis, using a respondent base of 42,603 adults, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percent.
For instance, Obama’s weekly average from March 23-29, 2015 was 46 percent approval, 49 percent disapproval and 5 percent no opinion. Using the SWS net approval formula, that would mean -3 percent net.
Comparing that to Mr. Aquino’s +11 percent net approval rating makes you wonder where the prognosis of his impending doom is coming from.
In fact, Obama has rated much worse in the past and so have other American presidents. Obama rated only 38 percent approval from August 20-29, 2011, October 4-17, 2011 and September 1-3, 2014.
On the other hand, George W. Bush rated only 25 percent approval on October 31, 2008 and Bill Clinton had 37 percent approval on May 26, 1993.
Frankly, the fact that 47 percent or nearly half of the Filipino population still regard PNoy favorably is a sign that he still has pretty good support. Consider that he won the presidency with only 42.08 percent of the votes.
Of course, any right-thinking leader should be greatly concerned over the sharp drop in approval, even if a large segment of the population still thinks favorably of him. Aquino should take note of a recent Manila Bulletin news item that pointed out:
“When President Aquino began his six-year term in June, 2010, he had the highest trust rating ever recorded by any individual in Pulse Asia’s trust surveys since 1999 – 85 percent. Only 2 percent had little or no trust; 13 percent were undecided.
“Over the next five years, the trust dipped to more realistic levels, but not by much. The trust ratings in the first quarter of the succeeding years were 75 percent in 2011, 69 percent in 2012, 72 percent in 2013, and 69 percent in 2014.”
What this tells us is that, contrary to the wishes of his political enemies, Filipinos have not given up on PNoy and it would be a big mistake to write him off. Perhaps it is due to our forgiving nature, our tendency to remember the good in a person whenever we confront the bad.
Aquino’s biggest mistake would be to take that forgiving and understanding nature for granted.
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