According to a new study, the California drought has some serious effects. If the drought were to continue for two to three years, rural communities and wildlife would suffer most–but urban populations have readied themselves to withstand further restrictions in water deliveries.
The “what if” report from the Public Policy Institute of California released on Thursday, August 20 praises city-centers such as Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana and San Francisco-Sacramento for adapting to the driest four years in state history through the use of recycled water, ground water and mandatory water conservation measures.
The report also coincided with a statement Thursday from Gov. Jerry Brown, who said climate change is worsening the effects of California’s four-year drought.
“New scientific reports now make it crystal clear that climate change is already affecting California and the Southwest in the form of higher temperatures and a more devastating drought,” Brown said. “It’s time for Republicans, foot-dragging corporations and other deniers to wake up and take sensible action before it is too late.”
He referenced a separate report titled “Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012–2014,” which was published in the scientific journal Geophysical Research Letters.
Forecasters predict increasing temperatures in the Golden State over the next few decades.
“By the 2060s, more or less permanent drought conditions will set in, with evaporation overpowering short bursts of intense rainfall,” said A. Park Williams, a bioclimatologist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.
“The big cities are the success story in the drought so far. That was not the case in the last big drought, so they’ve learned from that,” said Caitrin Chappelle, associate center director for the Public Policy Institute.
Two decades of investment in indoor conservation and new reservoirs–capturing more storm-water and using treated waste water on golf courses, school grounds, and in cemeteries–created “a more diversified portfolio that left cities more resilient to withstand extended droughts.”
“Metropolitan Water District of Southern California estimated Southern California saves 800,000 acre-feet of water as a result of indoor and outdoor water conservation practiced since the 1990s,” said Brandon Goshi, manager of water policy and strategy.
The report warns that further drought will dry up more wells in rural communities in the central part of the state, where in some cases the ground is sinking due to over-pumping.
In addition, an extended drought will drain revenues from water utilities, expected to fall by $600 million by the end of 2015. Without reserves, utilities will have to raise rates high.
More drought years will also lower yields from hydropower plants, a relatively cheap source of electricity. Power utilities will lose $500 million in 2015 but energy losses are being made up through a surge of renewable sources, such as wind and solar.
The biggest impact of continued drought years falls on the state’s rivers and forests, Chappelle said.
Already, the four-year drought combined with higher temperatures due to global warming have sparked 160 wildfires burning in the Western United States, with 100 of those in California. More drought will add to the number and intensity of wildfires, the report said.
“These very hot, large fires permanently damage the ecosystems and the drought creates the circumstances that those fires are more likely to happen,” Chappelle said.
Fire agencies are only focused on suppression and should employ a long-term strategy of forest thinning and better forest management, the report said.
In California’s rivers, more drought years could wipe out at least 18 species of native state fish, including most salmon runs. Waterbird populations would rapidly decline, the report warned.
“One thing to keep in mind: our ecosystems are not as able to adapt as we are. Streams can’t pump ground water or build a desal plant,” Chappelle said.
While national meteorologists have put the chance of an El Niño bringing storms and flooding to the West Coast at 90 percent, the PPIC report said that part is “not something state water agencies should count on. Even if rainfall amounts increase, another drought could be around the corner.”
“Everything we do now will make it easier for the next time there is a drought,” Chappelle said.
Added Williams, “By knowing how much global warming has contributed to the trend in California drought conditions over the past century, we can reliably predict how the future will play out.”
(With reports from the Los Angeles Daily News, Los Angeles Times)
