WITH less than two weeks until the 2014-midterm elections, many races are still undecided. What many political leaders have failed to recognize is that there is a large, yet relatively silent, population that could be a key to some of these races.
Despite being the fastest growing segment of the US population, with voters doubling from 2 million in 2000 to 3.9 million in 2012, Asian American voters are still being overlooked in the 2014 midterms. This could be a mistake for both major political parties.
Asian Americans represent one of the most important segments of the electorate that is still up for grabs. The Field Poll on the California Gubernatorial Campaign between Brown and Kashkari shows that Asian Americans represent 10 percent of likely voters in the state, but a striking 41 percent reported that they were still undecided among the candidates. This is four times the percentage of whites (11%) that are undecided.
This undecided trend among Asian Americans, which is national, offers extraordinary opportunities to both political parties.
According to a recent survey by Asian Americans Advancing Justice of registered Asian American voters nationally, almost half (46%) reported that they were either independent or not affiliated with any party. In addition, almost a quarter (23%) reported that they favored neither party in pending congressional races. That is, although the Asian American vote has a slight Democratic lean, it is not strongly aligned with either party.
This lack of alignment with any party presents a unique opportunity for candidates to focus on issues of concern to Asian Americans rather than traditional partisanship.
In congressional races that are considered a toss up, this could be crucial for congressional candidates. In some of the closely contested House races in California, Nevada, New York, Virginia, Illinois, and Washington, Asian Americans constitute from 7 to 13 percent of the districts’ eligible voter population. With these races in the balance, the Asian American swing vote could play a significant role in determining the elections. For example, in Virginia’s 10th congressional district both candidates, Foust and Comstock, are making increased efforts to court the Asian vote in a district where Asian Americans constitute 10 percent of eligible voters.
With a projected 60 to 77 percent turnout at the polls nationally, Asian American voters could be the demographic that changes the outcome in these races.
Unfortunately, most political parties and leaders have at best barely tapped this non-partisan voting bloc. The Asian Americans Advancing Justice study demonstrates that two-thirds of Asian Americans have not been contacted by the Democratic Party and over three-fourths say they have not been contacted by the Republican Party.
The 2014 midterms may represent a missed opportunity, particularly in close house races. In sixty different congressional districts, Asian Americans make up more than 8 percent of eligible voters. And in closely contested senate races in Alaska and North Carolina, they could determine which party controls the Senate.
The most important take-away is that the Asian American vote, unlike the present Black or Latino vote, could be determined by relatively moderate shifts in the political parties emphasis and courtship techniques. This also provides Asian Americans a unique opportunity as they are courted in the future by both sides.
Which Party Will Nominate The First Asian American Presidential Candidate?
With the changing face of the Republican Party and the possibility of dynamic changes within the Democratic Party, Asian Americans are likely to play an increasingly pivotal role in close elections throughout the US in the future.
In California, Asian American voters are projected to be 15 to 17 percent of the vote within a decade and over 20 percent within the generation.
What is unclear is whether either party can permanently capture an Asian American vote that focuses more on issues than party lines. One of the first tests could well be the 2016 California US Senate race, particularly if Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer decides not to seek reelection and the Republicans offer a moderate Republican candidate.
And all this could change if a truly Pan-Asian American national network is developed that became, as Fox News has accomplished for key segments of the Republican Party, a voice for all Asian American ethnic groups. (The decision by the FCC in the pending Comcast/ Time Warner Merger could be a first step.)
(Faith Bautista & Darwin Pham)
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Darwin Pham is the Deputy Director for Asian American state and national Issues.
