PH, China, US: A ménage à trois

WE TRUST that President Rodrigo Duterte, the consummate lover, will know how to play this geopoliticalménage à trois among China, the United States and the Philippines.
With the fair Philippines as the object of the escalating rivalry between China (a neighbor since the earth came to be) and the US (a latter-day colonizer that came into the neighborhood only at the turn of the Century), watch Mr. Duterte perform another balancing act.
At the moment, this miron sees President Duterte as being more open to China. Its Ambassador Zhao Jinhua has been reaping points, because of his patience and persistence born out of his keen understanding of Asian, particularly Filipino, psychology.
In the case of the US, not only does the American suitor comes projecting like a used-car salesman despite a coterie of expensive PR advisers helping out – while the envoy from Beijing, in a manner of speaking, simply comes bearing hopia wrapped in wax paper and delivered with a smile.
The US embassy in Manila is handicapped by Ambassador Philip S. Goldberg’s having given a bad impression on President Duterte. To complicate matters, the psychology of the brand-new Philippine president does not fit the stereotype US tuta (lapdog).
While Beijing is busy courting the new President, the White House and the State department distracted by the election campaign are not giving Manila the attention it deserves as a key card that could be played against China as the US pivots to the Asia-Pacific theater.
A few days after repeating his undiplomatic remark that Goldberg is gay, Mr. Duterte made it known that in his dealings with China on territorial issues, he would not start by playing his best card, which is the July 12 ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague.
The award (ruling) upheld most of the 15 submissions of the Philippines based on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. It also assailed as without legal basis China’s nine-dash line theory for claiming as its own the choice areas of the South China Sea.
The ruling that the US had helped win for Manila and for which it had gathered supportive reactions from its allies is now to be put aside momentarily by the Philippines in its neighborly conversations with China?
The decision of President Duterte to discuss directly all territorial issues with China is another departure from the White House suggestion to Malacañang (that the Aquino administration had adopted) to present such issues using a multilateral front.
Along that US advice, Manila has tried, but failed, to gain a consensus in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations – where the Philippines is a member together with nine others – to include in the final communique of its foreign ministers’ meeting a paragraph mentioning the territorial tiff with a neighbor throwing its weight around.
With the Philippines upcoming as the next ASEAN host and chairman, and with President Duterte’s influencing the conference, the Philippines may yet get that portion included next time.
Washington could not have been surprised by the frame of mind of the new Philippine president about pursuing bilateral talks with China, but it appears that Mr. Duterte has mounted the stage without having been given a Made in the US script.
It seems the runners of the US embassy in government, business and media were caught dozing in thepansitan, the Chinese noodle house.
• Duterte willing not to invoke ruling
AS REPORTED by PhilStar.com’s Patricia Lourdes Viray, President Duterte expressed willingness to not invoke the UNCLOS decision averse to China when substantial talks between the two neighbors open on territorial issues.
His explanation was clear enough: The Philippines is not yet ready to go to war to back up its territorial claims versus China. So it will not flaunt the favorable UNCLOS award and risk scuttling the dialogue or pushing the two countries to an armed confrontation.
Again employing his now-famous joking manner of driving home a point, the Commander-in-Chief said being more forceful may become an option when the country is able to develop adequate military muscles.
His remarks were made in a National Heroes Day program at the Libingan ng mga Bayani which Ambassador Zhao attended.
The President told the ambassador who was seated with the audience: “I will not use the judgment (of the arbitral tribunal) now, but I would one day sit in front of your representative or you and then I will lay bare my position and I would say that this paper, I cannot get out of the four corners of this law and that is the arbitral judgment.”
He appealed to China to allow Filipinos to also fish in the Panatag (Scarborough) shoal off Zambales. After President Aquino withdrew in 2012 Philippine vessels keeping watch there, the Chinese took over and banned Filipinos who have been traditionally fishing in the area.
Sovereignty over Panatag was not among the submissions of the Philippines. The tribunal did not rule as to which country should legally possess it, although it is just 120 nautical miles from Zambales and within the 200-nm Exclusive Economic Zone of the Philippines.
But since China is in physical control of Panatag, it could dictate who should fish there despite the ruling of the tribunal that the shoal be opened to all fishermen of whatever nationality who have been traditionally fishing there. (ManilaTimes.net)