The folks at my favorite watering hole in Daly City have all perked up at the recent announcement by Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV that he is “100% sure” to run for vice-president in 2016.
It appears, they all have this impression of Trillanes as the epitome of that song, “Fools rush in where angels fear to tread.”
The first time, this ex-navy man burst on the scene, he was part of a “military mutiny” that was clearly designed or intended to fail. Trillanes and a group of “military reformists” took over the plush Oakwood apartment tower at the Ayala commercial center in Makati and, from there, demanded that Pres. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo “resign…or else.”
The mischievous folks at the watering hole think that the continuation of the threat, “Or else….” was, “…or else we will surrender.” Which is exactly what Trillanes and his pals did.
One would think that the logical thing for military rebels to do, assuming they don’t have the fire power to stage a successful coup, is to pull off a Victor Corpuz caper. For those too young to remember, Corpuz was a young lieutenant in the Philippine army who became disillusioned with the way government was being run. He decided to cast his lot with the New People’s Army. And he did it in Hollywood fashion. He raided the armory of the Philippine Military Academy and ran off to the hills with a haul of weapons and ammo.
Trillanes and company could also have emulated Huk Supremo Luis Taruc who, having been prevented from assuming his seat as a member of the House of Representatives, back in 1946, fled to the hills to lead the Hukbong Bayan Laban sa Hapon (Hukbalahap) or Huk for short.
But no, the creature comforts of Oakwood must have been more appealing for Trillanes and company. Besides, it made surrendering that much easier.
So, was Trillanes a “fool” who rushed into that mutiny where wiser rebels would have backed off? As it turns out, he was more clever than he was given credit for. Behind bars, he ran for senator and won.
That, you must admit, was quite a feat.
This is why I have cautioned my friends at the watering hole not to immediately conclude that running for vice-president is another “foolish” Trillanes caper.
“There’s no way he can win,” says Pete dismissively, from behind the bar. “In all of the public opinion polls, he and Cayetano have been – to use a cliché – cellar dwellers.”
“Yeah,” chimes in Johnny, waving his bottle of San Miguel beer from his table, “in the latest Pulse Asia survey, Trillanes rated a mere 5% against Chiz Escudero’s 15% and Grace Poe’s 41%. Trillanes would have been at the bottom of the list, except for Leni Robredo who rated 1% – but she has no plans of running.”
“So, how does Trillanes hope to win against those odds?” Pete asks.
“Maybe he knows something we don’t,” I venture. “Remember that when Jojo Binay started his campaign for the vice-presidency, his survey ratings were also as low as that of Trillanes. But, surprise of surprises, he zoomed all the way up and nosed out Mar Roxas.”
“Maybe he has a secret war chest,” says Jimmy, seated at Johnny’s table. “I recall, Trillanes got P100 million in pork barrel and another P100 in DAP funds. That’s P200 million guys. You don’t really believe he spent all of that on waiting sheds and basketball courts, do you? Siyempre, may kupit iyon for the campaign.”
“Maari, pero mahina iyan,” cuts in Pete. “Maybe P200 million could support a vice-presidential campaign many years ago, but not anymore. In the old days, you could buy votes for P50 each. Ngayon, libo na.”
“You mean Trillanes will buy votes when he campaigns? I thought he’s supposed to be a model of honesty and integrity,” quips, Johnny, with unveiled sarcasm.
“Honesty and integrity, my eye,” snaps Pete. “Show me a politician who doesn’t buy votes during an election campaign and I’ll show you an idiot.”
Pete goes on to explain that Mar Roxas, who could be the official candidate of the Liberal Party, has also been claiming to be a model of honesty and integrity even while he has already begun “buying up ballots.”
“That’s the real meaning of BUB or Bottom-Up Budgeting,” says Pete. “Buying up ballots. Roxas has already been going around the country buying the support of local officials with government money.”
“Even Grace Poe – assuming the Supreme Court allows her to run for president – will have to buy votes if she wants to win,” points out Jimmy. “Maybe she won’t do it herself kundi mga alalay niya, but it’s the same banana.”
At this, Frank, a veteran of Philippine politics who decided to immigrate to California, steps forward and motions to us to pipe down.
“You guys are too simple minded for your own good,” he says with the air of one who has been there, done that.
“First of all,” says Frank, “money will be no problem for Trillanes. He can get all the money he wants from the business community, especially the up-and-coming entrepreneurs. No, not the taipans, they’re too powerful for him.”
“What do you mean he won’t have problems raising money?”
“Come on,” says Frank, “don’t be naïve. All he has to do is threaten to conduct a senate inquiry on the unexplained wealth and business activities of the prospective donors. You think they’ll refuse to contribute if they know what’s good for them? Remember, the AMLA could freeze their assets.”
“But on what will he base the senate investigation?”
“Well, what do you think did he base the Binay investigation on? Di ba, tsismis, hearsay and guesswork ng mga kalaban ni Binay?”
Frank adds that perjured witnesses can be reassured of being included in the witness protection program, “Kaya malakas ang loob magsinungaling.”
“Kung sabagay,” I admit, “you can raise a lot of money from contributors.” And I add, “In fact, I heard that some media people routinely run for congress as party list candidates in order to solicit campaign contributions. I understand they really don’t expect to win, but they generate a lot of cash.”
“That,” says Frank, “is the name of the game in Philippine politics. Elections are a great excuse for fund-raising. The higher the position, the bigger the bucks. A vice-presidential candidate can make millions from campaign contributions.”
Then Frank continues: “But to go back to Trillanes and his plan to run for vice-president. He knows that if he loses, he still retains his Senate seat. So, no harm done. He also knows that he doesn’t have the nationwide political infrastructure that Binay had. He doesn’t have the star appeal of Grace Poe. He doesn’t even have the boyish charm of Chiz Escudero.”
“So he’s sure to lose,” we all conclude. “Then why would he want to run if he can’t win?”
And, at this, Frank’s eyes twinkle wisely: “Who said anything about winning?” ([email protected])
