WITH the September Pulse Asia survey on presidential preferences already hitting the papers, the ABB (Anyone But Binay) Brigade must be giddy with joy. I was furnished a copy of an email from a member of US Pinoys for Good Governance (formerly US Pinoys for Noynoy-Mar) that was nothing short of ecstatic:
“The latest survey in September shows that Binay’s vaunted ‘teflon armor’ is after all made of the ‘kevlar variety’ like the marine helmets procured by Janet Napoles for Arroyo’s generals. Comparing July’s to September’s survey, the numbers for Binay’s ‘electability’ is now on the wane as matched against the other presidentiables.”
Indeed, comparing the Pulse Asia surveys of July and September, one can see a 10 percent drop in Binay’s ratings, from 41 percent in July down to 31 percent in September, nationwide. On the other hand, Mar Roxas has increased from 6 percent in July to 13 percent in September or +7 percent.
Grace Poe’s rating has gone down from 12 percent to 10 percent; Miriam Defensor-Santiago has gone up from 7 percent to 11 percent; and Erap Estrada has increased slightly from 9 percent to 10 percent.
Ironically, Alan Peter Cayetano’s rating from July to September tumbled from 5 percent to only 1 percent.
Cayetano, with Antonio Trillanes, has been doing most of the huffin’ and puffin’ to bring the Binay house down, mounting a Senate investigation of Binay and Makati ostensibly “in aid of legislation” but obviously in aid of presidential ambition.
One thing can be said about the concentrated demolition job mounted against Binay: it has certainly taken its toll. And it should send the message to the Binay camp that they are not impregnable. But the effect on Cayetano’s presidential aspirations must be very discouraging for one so young and so ambitious.
This confirms a point I made a few columns ago about the bottom line for a demolition job such as the one undertaken by Cayetano and Trillanes, reportedly with funding from the Liberal Party.
This is what I wrote: “Roxas, Cayetano and Trillanes probably believe that attacking Binay is the way to boost their stock in the eyes of the voting public. Their political consultants might have pointed out what happened to Manny Villar in the 2010 presidential contest. They probably think they can apply the tactic for 2016….
“Perhaps Roxas, Cayetano and Trillanes think that, if eroding Villar’s ranking succeeded in scuttling his presidential campaign and in catapulting Noynoy Aquino to Malacañang, launching a demolition campaign against Binay could also be beneficial to them.
“Frankly, they should put their campaign funds to better use. Destroying Binay will not help any of them get closer to the presidency or the vice-presidency than they are now (which, from indications, is quite a formidable distance). The only way they can do that is by building up themselves, rather than destroying their opponent.”
As the point man in the blitz, Cayetano has suffered most from the backlash, not just from Binay supporters, but also from those who can see through his self-serving tactics. Social media tracking indicates that over 60 percent of people making online postings on the Senate hearing are against Cayetano
One posting, translated from Tagalog, is particularly instructive: “This Senator talks too much…If you dream of becoming president, do your job well and don’t attack other people just to improve your image.”
Interestingly, Mar Roxas may have benefited the most from the efforts of Cayetano and Trillanes. Note that Roxas has been relatively low key the past several weeks, particularly at the height of the media reports on the Senate hearings on Makati. He only emerged when the issue of rising criminality became headline news, but there were no attacks on him similar to the barrage that he suffered after the Zamboanga and Yolanda debacles.
This tells us that Roxas’ press relations people have succeeded in buying back the media loyalty their ward lost after he bungled one crisis after another. They had better keep their fingers crossed that, between now and the next public opinion polls, Roxas will not shoot himself on the foot and Cayetano and Trillanes will continue being the scape goats in the ABB campaign.
At any rate, it may be too early for Roxas’ fans to celebrate. The 7 percent increase in his ratings, nationwide, is just a mite above that of Grace Poe and Erap Estrada, both at 10 percent. Roxas’ biggest jump has been in the Visayas (from 11 percent to 22 percent or +11 percent) and Mindanao (from 11 percent to 19 percent or +8 percent) but those are still well below Binay’s 33 percent and 27 percent, respectively.
Roxas still has a lot of catching up to do, if he wants to give Binay a competitive race for the presidency. But then, that’s what the Disbursement Acceleration Program and the Bottom Up Budgeting (AKA Buying Up Ballots) funds are for.
Reports in the grapevine are that Roxas’ handlers plan to bring up his ratings close enough to that of Binay to make a Garcified election believable.
For Binay, 10 percent is a substantial drop, even if you consider the fact that the September Pulse Asia reading added four more “presidentiables” to the list who accounted for a total of 7 percent.
But a reality check for the Binay bashers will also show that the 10 percent drop in preference for him as a presidential candidate, compared to the others is not as steep as that suffered by Noynoy Aquino in the Pulse Asia reading between March and June 2014 which was from 70 percent down to 56 percent or a drop of 14 percent.
Another point worth considering is that Binay has core supporters who will stand by him, whatever his detractors might say. Whether or not the 31 percent of respondents represent his bedrock constituency, only an exhaustive research study can determine. But it is a fact in a tribal society like the Philippines, there exists what I refer to this as The Erap Phenomenon.
The fact that Erap Estrada, dislodged from office, convicted and jailed for plunder and made to suffer all kinds of indignities still managed to overtake Manny Villar in the 2010 elections and finished a respectable second to a candidate created out of the magic of Cory and Ninoy Aquino. The fact that Erap won as mayor of Manila. And the fact that he continues to enjoy significant support among prospective voters.
You might also refer to it as the Marcos phenomenon, because no matter what anyone might say, the Marcoses are the super heroes of the Solid North.
To the politically astute, this phenomenon is not accidental. It is a foundation built over many years, many shared battles, many favors given, many benefits shared, and many personal relationships forged, defying logic and frustrating the sharpest, best-funded political consultants and demolition experts.
Think of it this way: If Erap Estrada decides not to run for president, guess whom his undying fans will vote for.
([email protected])
